Russian Fabric Market Depressed For Next Two Years, Declining Ruble, Oil Prices Upsets Fabric Economics
March 10, 2015
FRANKFURT—After a decade of good fabric business with European and other suppliers and the Russian wholesalers, the business in Russia has imploded due to the 50 percent drop in the ruble against the US dollar, say suppliers and agents close to the Russian market.
It was the story on everyone’s lips at Heimtextil. Although there were many Russian wholesalers in attendance at Heimtextil, business just wasn’t the same as in prior years.
Will the Russian market bounce back even after two years—nobody is saying or knows. “It was a good year for Russian business until October and November. Now it is a mess,” one supplier said.
Some Russian wholesalers are moving their inventory to Eastern Europe for safekeeping. They themselves do not know what will happen with the Russian Government. “If you bought in dollars, you lost half; if you bought rugs and fabrics from Iran in rubles, you did ok,” one supplier pointed out, but those who did are in a minority.
Many agents are laying low with Russian customers until the environment improves which won’t be for several years, observers say. Russian wholesalers attended Heimtextil but the number of designers they brought with them was greatly reduced. The Russian customer is buying less but is trying to maintain relationships with their suppliers.
“The Russian market has been dramatically reduced in volume,” says one agent for European lines: the importers are more selective where they are buying anything at all. Volume has dropped nearly 50 percent of what it was.”
One agent said he believes that the situation will remain unstable for the next two years.
“Due to the economic sanctions, Russia is interesting now only for the presidents of the nations that promoted business relations --not for Europe and the USA. The advantage now goes to China and India. These countries can supply textiles, defense, electronics, food and more to Russia. The Ukraine is poor and corrupted like Nigeria,” a European agent said.
“The Russian market is broken. In October, there were 50 rubles to the Dollar and now its 100 rubles. You cannot make programs because of the Russian currency fluctuation. It is now dependent on politics and the price of oil,” a supplier said.